Home prices in the U.S. rose 7.3 percent in 2012 and are projected to
rise 3.9 percent annually for the next five years, according to the
latest CoreLogic analysis.
Florida cities, however, vary from the nation and even each other in
2012 home values, as well as CoreLogic’s projections for the future.
Prices rose during 2012 in all six Florida cities tracked by the index,
varying from a low of 3.5 percent in Jacksonville to a high of 13.5
percent in Miami. However, the company predicts a slight price decline
in five cities by the close of 2013. It predicts only Tampa will see an
increase this year, with prices rising 3.9 percent.
As 2013 continues, CoreLogic predicts, “market dynamic shifts” in
bubble/crash metro areas. The company points out that homes are still
undervalued in bubble cities, including some in Florida, but it predicts
that investor demand for foreclosed properties will decline.
In addition, today’s rising prices will, over time, make a home purchase
less affordable for some families, and “other demand factors that have
driven recent double-digit price gains are unlikely to persist
throughout the year.”
CoreLogic also thinks higher home sale prices will draw more sellers
into the market, particularly those who recently emerged from being
underwater. That higher inventory of for-sale homes coupled with lower
investor demand will, according to CoreLogic, moderate price increases
in 2013.
“Home prices were up in seven out of every 10 metro areas (nationally)
in 2012,” say Dr. David Stiff, chief economist for CoreLogic
Case-Shiller. “In 2011, prices appreciated in fewer than one-in-five
markets.”
Stiff isn’t worried about another housing bubble, however.
“Even if double-digit price appreciation were to continue in the former
bubble metro areas, there is no reason to believe that new home price
bubbles are forming,” he says. “That’s because single-family homes in
these markets are still very affordable, even after last year’s large
price gain.”
He does expect some price volatility, however, as the market adapts to
changing conditions. Nationally, CoreLogic forecasts a 2.5 percent price
increase in 2013.
Florida cities
The CoreLogic analysis offered three price points for six Florida cities
– the price increase or decrease over three years at the end of 2012;
the price increase or decrease in 2012; and the forecasted price
increase or decrease in 2013. They include:
Fort Lauderdale: A 3% price increase in the three years prior to Dec. 31, 2012; a 9.6% rise in 2012; and a 3.9% price decline forecast for 2013.
Jacksonville: A 10.2% price decline in the three years prior to Dec. 31,
2012; a 3.5% rise in 2012; and a 0.8% price decline forecast for 2013.
Miami: A 7.2% price increase in the three years prior
to Dec. 31, 2012; a 13.5% rise in 2012; and a 4.4% price decline
forecast for 2013.
Orlando: A 1.1% price decline in the three years prior
to Dec. 31, 2012; a 9.5% rise in 2012; and a 2.9% price decline forecast
for 2013.
Tampa: A 3.3% price decline in the three years prior to
Dec. 31, 2012; a 7.1% rise in 2012; and a 3.9% price increase forecast
for 2013.
West Palm Beach: A 1.5% price decline in the three
years prior to Dec. 31, 2012; a 9.8% rise in 2012; and a 3.4% price
decline forecast for 2013.
© 2013 Florida Realtors®
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